Epidemic Models and Their Applications to Gel Formation
Ayşe Hümeyra Bilge
Kadir Has Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Compartmental models in epidemiology consist of a subdivision of
individuals into disjoint subgroups and transition rules among these
compartments. The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-ExposedInfected-Recovered (SEIR) models describe the spread of a disease characterized by
permanent immunity, once the subject is recovered from the disease. The
Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type models describe the spread of diseases
characterized by a temporary immunity. All models possess equilibrium states
characterized by the vanishing of the number of Infected individuals.
In previous work, we modelled the sol-gel transition of chemical (irreversible) and
physical (reversible) gels in terms of the SIR/SEIR and SIS models respectively. In all
cases we have seen that the points ti where higher order derivatives of sigmoidal
transition curves reach their absolute extreme values, have an accumulation point to.
In the case of chemical gels, this point agrees qualitatively with the “gel point”. Based
on these observations we defined the “critical point of a sigmoidal curve y(t)” as the
limit of the sequence {ti}. We proved that, under certain general assumptions, the limit
point t0 corresponds to the slope of the asymptotic phase angle of the Fourier
transform of y’(t). This result is interpreted as the existence of a preferred origin of
time that will make the Fourier transform of y’(t) asymptotically real. In the case of the
SIR/SEIR models, the critical point is computed by symbolic and numeric
computations. For the SIS model (with some modifications) the exact solution turns out
to be the “generalized logistic growth curve” whose Fourier transform is computed
analytically and the critical point is explicitly found.
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